Irrational Exuberance 非理性繁荣

Irrational exuberance 非理性繁荣

This phrase is believed to have been first used by former U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan when he said in 1996 that irrational exuberance may drive up assets prices more than they should be. The subsequent collapse of the dotcom bubble served as a textbook example, though it probably was not what Greenspan had foreseen. The phrase is now often used to describe how easily investors can be misled into feverish speculative investments; even though the investors might realize that the projects fundamentally be unsound, they get this ‘feeling’. Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller analyzed the phenomenon in the stock market in his 2000 book titled Irrational Exuberance. The book's second edition in 2005, warned of the burst of the US’s housing bubble.前美联储主席格林斯潘在1996年的一次讲话中首次使用了非理性繁荣这个词。他指出，非理性繁荣会让资产的价格虚增，超过他们应有的水平。随之而来的互联网泡沫破灭印证了他的话，成为非理性繁荣的经典案例，虽然格林斯潘本人当初多半也没有预料到这样的结果。今天，非理性繁荣这个词被广泛的用于形容人们在明知危险的情况下仍然狂热的参与投机，导致市场呈现一片繁荣的假象。诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·席勒在他2000年出版的《非理性繁荣》一书中，以股市为例描绘了这种现象。此书于2005年再版，书中预言了美国的房地产市场泡沫即将崩溃。（财新 王宇倩）