Black Swan Effect 黑天鹅效应

Black Swan Effect 黑天鹅效应

Black Swan Effect refers to a rare and surprise event which has extremely impactful consequences in hindsight. The term comes from an ancient Western saying that "All swans are white." Thus black swans were an impossible occurrence– until they were discovered in Australia in the 17th century. The theory is described by Nassim Nickolas Taleb in his 2007 book The Black Swan. Taleb regards many scientific discoveries - undirected and unpredicted - as black swans. They also exist in almost all fields of life - from government policy-making and stock market predictions to decisions made in everyday life. Black swan events include the 1987 stock market collapse, the September 11 attacks and snowstorms across China in 2008. A black swan event may occur more often in the financial markets but it would be one that causes great and unexpected losses to investors.