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Black Swan Effect 黑天鹅效应

2014年05月26日 14:46 来源于 财新网
发现黑天鹅之前,欧洲人认为天鹅都是白的,他们曾用“黑天鹅”指不可能存在的事物,但这个信念随着第一只黑天鹅的出现而崩溃。它寓意着不可预测的重大稀有事件,在意料之外改变一切。最近阿里上市,专家学者最担心的是出现黑天鹅事件。且听财新小编详解。
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Black Swan Effect 黑天鹅效应

Black Swan Effect refers to a rare and surprise event which has extremely impactful consequences in hindsight. The term comes from an ancient Western saying that "All swans are white." Thus black swans were an impossible occurrence– until they were discovered in Australia in the 17th century. The theory is described by Nassim Nickolas Taleb in his 2007 book The Black Swan. Taleb regards many scientific discoveries - undirected and unpredicted - as black swans. They also exist in almost all fields of life - from government policy-making and stock market predictions to decisions made in everyday life. Black swan events include the 1987 stock market collapse, the September 11 attacks and snowstorms across China in 2008. A black swan event may occur more often in the financial markets but it would be one that causes great and unexpected losses to investors.

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